Dispatch #22

Now less than a month until the election, the candidates and their parties work harder and harder, spend more and more time and money on fewer and fewer voters, the undecideds, essentially, the dimwits. That people can be undecided after this long speaks to the power of ignorance and the instability of popular political judgment, drawing as it does on the voters’ gut-level responses at any particular moment. (Perhaps the undecideds claim indecision because they like the national media attention, the sense that they hold the balance.) Obama and Romney jockey to make a good, the best, last impression. It’s hard to watch, so I’ve been reading Anna Karenina instead. Tolstoy has nothing relevant to say about democratic electioneering, a fact which notably recommends him.

After Mr. Romney’s excellent first debate with the president, in which he strongly reversed the downward, almost hopeless trend of his campaign, the lively performance of Biden in the vice-presidential debate and Obama’s own more focused second presidential debate have corrected the Democrats’ slide. The stock markets, though volatile from day to day, move up month to month; consumer confidence has risen; the housing market shows visible improvement. All of these economic trends boost Obama’s chances, which are now running about 2 to 1 in his favor, with one debate remaining. Each candidate having won a debate and shown fundamental competence in both, I don’t expect a clear-cut victor in the final debate. Both have been tested, bested once, and will be prepared. They’ll argue to a draw.

After all is said and done, then, and acknowledging both my own liberal bias and my own conservative sense that all of this campaigning hasn’t really informed or genuinely changed our minds much (though it has exercised us) I predict an Obama popular vote victory 51.5% to 48%. But then, this is why we have elections and count the votes.