Dispatch #13

This week, the Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of what has come to be known as ObamaCare, or more officially, as the Affordable Care Act. Despite a host of popular prognostification anticipating a robust rejection of its constitutionality, and more expert analysis indicating a mixed decision supporting at least some of its provisions but not likely all of them, the Court, as I guessed—luckily—ruled 5-4 in its favor. (Much as I recommend competence and knowledge of the technical details in all things, it’s better sometimes, easier anyway, to be lucky.) The only surprise in this ruling is that the swing vote came this time from the Chief Justice, John Roberts, a rather conservative appointment and jurist. With the legal and constitutional arguments essentially settled, the arguments about its wisdom as policy return to the political arena: Mitt Romney has vowed to repeal the act. Although he had authored and passed a similar bill for health care in the state of Massachusetts, his signal political accomplishment, he will oppose the national Obama version because his supporters require it, despise Obama and ObamaCare for no good reason, except that they have been propagandized to despise Obama, therefore anything of Obama, like caring for people’s health.

This court victory will bolster Obama’s reputation, if not particularly as a legislator, at least as a constitutionalist, but more importantly, as a winner. “Success,” as Napoleon Bonaparte observed, “is the greatest orator in the world.” [Davies, Europe: A History, p. 701] And insofar as rhetoric matters, he will need all he can muster. Before the decision, a larger plurality of Americans—ill-informed on a complex piece of legislation most of whose mandates won’t take effect until 2014—polled negatively on the Act. After the decision, a slightly higher plurality of ill-informed Americans approved. This success provides Obama with an opportunity to remake the case that while Obamacare may not be the “big F-ing deal” that his Vice-President gleefully whispered, he can remake the case that it is a serious and significant step forward, a major administrative achievement. Along with managing to prevent a second Great Depression and taking out Osama bin-Laden, he actually has a record of some success advancing the national good. Mitt Romney does not, which is a plus among Republican voters. But the election will be decided by so-called Independents, of whose existence we can be more or less thankful.