Dispatch #3

The Arizona and Michigan primaries went to Mitt Romney: in Arizona—47% Romney, 27% Santorum; in Michigan—41% Romney, 38% Santorum. The results came as no surprise to dull, cranky realists like myself. But dull, cranky realists like myself are, by definition, dull; that is to say, less interesting and readable than bug-eyed, right-wing ideologues who need attention (Santorum, Gingrich, and Ron Paul) and the journalists who desperately need something interesting to write and talk about in a 24-hour news-cycle. Writing about Mitt Romney is not interesting, nor is writing about inevitability. So, we read at length and hear ad nauseum about breathless possibilities; intelligent, detailed, and highly-wrought what-ifs, like John Whitesides’ 1000-word analysis, “Santorum Win in Michigan Could be Chaos for GOP” (Reuters 2/26/12). (The GOP=Grand Old Party=Republicans) In any case, that’s a lot of words for a very big IF. But that is what the news, what political discourse has become, both the news and what could be the news, maybe, you know, perhaps—in an alternate universe.

If this is your life or your job, the ceaseless chatter is regrettable but understandable; but if it is not, as it is not for me, and if you are looking on from another country, it is best just not to pay too much attention. If you read the U.S. press coverage closely for a week, you will probably read everything of substance you will likely need to understand the election in November. It will be rehashed and recycled with slight alteration every primary week until the conventions, when Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will be nominated. Then, it will all be rehearsed again during the election campaign, probably to no great effect. If the economy continues to mend, Barack Obama will be re-elected. The smart money right now is on Obama. I refrain from calling it the “conventional wisdom” because nothing about this discourse is genuinely wise.

Next week ten states hold primaries. Romney will finish 1^st or 2^nd in all of them, probably in front in enough of them to remain the front-runner. If he does well enough, the dull inevitability talk could begin. If not, the tedious fantasy cycle will continue through the spring.